The Harris Surge: Is Inflation Really a Deciding Factor?

When Biden was the projected 2024 presidential candidate, high inflation negatively impacted his approval ratings and projections against Trump. However, after Harris hypothetically replaced Biden, her projected success over Trump improved despite the continued presence of inflation. This suggests that voters may not primarily blame Harris for inflation, potentially challenging the idea that voters hold incumbent administrations responsible for economic struggles. Additionally, voters` negative perception of Biden might be rooted in personal factors rather than solely economic performance. This scenario presents a favorable situation for Democrats, as Harris, a newer candidate, avoids association with Biden`s perceived shortcomings. This trend of voters potentially prioritizing other factors over the economy was also observed in the 2022 midterm elections, where Democrats performed better than expected despite high inflation.