The Harris Surge: Is Inflation Really a Deciding Factor?

When Biden was the Democratic presidential candidate, high inflation negatively impacted his approval ratings and gave Trump a lead in the polls. However, after Biden hypothetically dropped out and Harris became the candidate, her poll numbers surpassed Trump`s despite inflation remaining relatively unchanged. This difference suggests that voters might hold Biden more accountable for inflation than Harris, indicating that incumbency`s impact on election outcomes might be more nuanced than previously thought. Additionally, voter preference for Harris over Biden could stem from factors beyond the economy, potentially reflecting a personal decline in support for Biden as opposed to a direct correlation with his economic policies. This situation benefits Harris and the Democrats, as it provides a fresh candidate seemingly unburdened by the negative perceptions associated with Biden. This advantage might be sustainable, as evidenced by the 2022 midterm elections where Democrats performed better than expected despite high inflation being a primary concern for voters.