The Harris Surge: Is Inflation Really a Deciding Factor?

Initially, Biden trailed behind Trump in the polls, with voters unhappy about inflation and financial markets predicting a Republican victory. However, after Biden`s hypothetical withdrawal and Harris`s hypothetical nomination, the situation reversed despite similar inflation levels. This raises questions about whether voters hold Harris less accountable for inflation or if other factors are at play.

One theory suggests voters might blame a president more directly for economic issues than the vice president. Another possibility is that Biden`s declining popularity stems from personal perceptions rather than solely economic factors. Interestingly, despite high inflation in 2022, Democrats performed better than expected in the midterm elections, indicating that inflation might not be the sole determinant of voter decisions. This situation presents a potentially advantageous scenario for Democrats, with Harris potentially benefiting from a clean slate, unburdened by Biden`s baggage.