The Harris Surge: Is It Biden, Inflation, or Something Else?

When Biden was the presidential candidate, high inflation negatively impacted his polling numbers, allowing Trump to take the lead. However, after Biden dropped out and Harris became the Democratic candidate, her poll numbers surged ahead of Trump`s despite inflation remaining relatively unchanged. This suggests that voters may hold Biden more accountable for inflation than Harris, challenging the idea that voters simply blame the incumbent president for economic troubles. Additionally, voters` negative perception of Biden might be more personal than economic, potentially stemming from his age and perceived decline. This situation benefits Harris, as she appears to be a fresh start without the baggage of Biden`s record. This is notable because it suggests that inflation might not be as decisive a factor in the election as previously thought, as seen in the 2022 midterms where Democrats performed better than expected despite high inflation.