The Harris Surge: Is Inflation Really a Deciding Factor?

When Biden was the projected 2024 presidential candidate, high inflation negatively impacted his performance in polls, allowing Trump to take the lead. However, after Biden`s hypothetical withdrawal and Harris`s subsequent candidacy, she now leads in polls despite inflation remaining relatively unchanged. This begs the question: why is Harris seemingly not being penalized for inflation, while it was detrimental to Biden`s performance? Some speculate that voters place more blame on Biden than Harris for the economic climate, suggesting that incumbency blame may not extend equally to all members of an administration. Others posit that Biden`s declining popularity might be rooted in personal perceptions rather than solely economic factors. This situation presents a favorable scenario for Democrats, with Harris potentially benefiting from a clean slate unburdened by Biden`s perceived shortcomings. Interestingly, this hypothesis aligns with the 2022 midterm elections, where Democrats performed better than expected despite high inflation, indicating that economic dissatisfaction may not necessarily translate into votes against the party in power.