The Harris Effect: Why Bidens Exit Changes the Inflation Calculus

When Biden was the anticipated Democratic presidential candidate, high inflation negatively impacted his performance in polls, allowing Trump to gain a lead. However, after Biden`s hypothetical withdrawal and Harris`s subsequent candidacy, Harris saw a surge in popularity despite inflation remaining relatively unchanged. This raises the question of whether voters are more forgiving of Harris regarding inflation or if other factors are at play.

One theory suggests that voters place more blame on Biden as the president for economic struggles, potentially indicating that incumbency blame might not extend equally to all members of an administration. Another possibility is that Biden`s declining popularity stems from personal perceptions rather than solely economic factors. This is significant because Harris appears to be benefiting from a fresh start, unburdened by Biden`s baggage. This trend is supported by the 2022 midterm elections, where Democrats performed better than expected despite high inflation, suggesting that economic concerns might not be the sole determinant of voter decisions.