The Harris Surge: Is It Biden, Inflation, or Something Else?

When Biden was the presidential candidate, high inflation negatively impacted his performance in polls and predictions favored a Republican win. However, after Biden hypothetically dropped out and was replaced by Harris, her poll numbers surged despite inflation remaining relatively unchanged. This suggests that voters may hold Biden more accountable for inflation than Harris, potentially indicating that incumbency blame might be directed more towards the president than other officials. Additionally, voters` negative perception of Biden could be linked to personal factors rather than solely based on the economy, as evidenced by Democrats still performing relatively well in the 2022 midterms despite high inflation. This situation benefits Harris, allowing her to distance herself from Biden`s perceived shortcomings while potentially benefiting from voters` desire for a fresh candidate.