The Harris Surge: Is It Inflation, Biden Fatigue, or Something Else?

Initially, Biden trailed behind Trump in polls as voters were unhappy with inflation. However, Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate and is now favored over Trump despite inflation remaining relatively unchanged. This suggests that voters might hold Biden more accountable for inflation than Harris, indicating that incumbency blame might not extend equally to all members of an administration. Additionally, voters` negative perception of Biden could be attributed to personal factors rather than solely economic performance. This shift benefits Harris, who, as a fresh candidate, avoids carrying the burden of Biden`s perceived shortcomings. Notably, even during the peak of inflation in 2022, Democrats performed better than expected in the midterm elections, suggesting that inflation might not be the sole determinant of voter preference.