The Harris Surge: Is Inflation Fading as a Decisive Election Issue?

When Biden was the presidential candidate, high inflation negatively impacted his polling numbers, allowing Trump to take a lead. However, after Biden dropped out and Harris became the Democratic candidate, her poll numbers surged ahead of Trump`s despite inflation remaining relatively unchanged. This suggests that voters may hold Biden more accountable for inflation than Harris, indicating that incumbency blame might be directed more towards the president than other officials. Additionally, voters` negative perception of Biden could be due to personal factors rather than solely based on the economy. This unexpected outcome benefits Harris, as she distances herself from Biden`s less favorable record. Interestingly, even during the peak of inflation in 2022, Democrats performed better than expected in the midterm elections, suggesting that inflation might not be the sole determinant of voter decisions.