The Harris Effect: Why Bidens Exit Could Defy Inflations Impact

When Biden was the presidential candidate, high inflation negatively impacted his polling numbers and gave Trump a lead. However, after Biden dropped out and Harris became the Democratic candidate, her poll numbers surged ahead of Trump`s despite inflation remaining relatively unchanged. This suggests that voters may hold Biden more accountable for inflation than Harris, indicating that incumbency blame might be directed more towards the president than other officials. Additionally, voter disapproval of Biden could be due to personal factors unrelated to the economy, as his approval declined with his age and performance. This situation benefits Harris, who, as a fresh candidate, avoids association with Biden`s negative record. Notably, even during the 2022 midterms when inflation was a major concern, Democrats performed better than expected, suggesting that economic dissatisfaction doesn`t necessarily translate to votes against the party in power.